The 2022 Academy Awards are coming up soon.  I have lots of feelings on most of the categories, but I have a strong suspicion that my picks in the categories won’t always match with the winners.  So here are my picks of who I predict will win vs who I think should win!

Best Picture

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

Who Will Win: West Side Story

It’s a nearly perfect production of West Side Story and Spielberg is a Hollywood favorite. 

Who Should Win: CODA 

Easily my favorite film of the year. A unique story told really, really well and filled with wonderful performances. 

Best Directing

• Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
• Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
• Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
• Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
• Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)

Who Will Win: West Side Story

Seems obvious. 

Who Should Win: West Side Story

I can’t argue with this one because the director of my best picture choice isn’t even a nominee. And Spielberg put together a crazy good film here.  

Actor in a Leading Role

• Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
• Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
• Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
• Will Smith (King Richard)
• Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Who Will Win: Denzel Washington

Shakespeare and Denzel together, the Academy can’t wait to vote for this. 

Who Should Win: Andrew Garfield

Andrew’s performance was brilliant, but I don’t think the academy feels like he’s earned it. 

Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
• Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
• Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
• Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
• Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Who Will Win: Kristen Stewart

She’s been winning a lot of awards already for this. 

Who Should Win: Olivia Coleman

Her performance was amazing but the film was overall too boring to get through. 

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
• Troy Kotsur (CODA)
• Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
• J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
• Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur

The Academy loves voting for historical wins (He’s the first deaf actor nominated) and he actually deserves it.  

Who Should Win: Troy Kotsur

His performance was solid. 

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
• Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
• Judi Dench (Belfast)
• Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
• Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Who Will Win: Ariana Debose

The Academy will not lose the opportunity to give an Oscar to an actual Latina woman in West Side Story. 

Who Should Win: Aunjanue Ellis

She gave the best monologue of the year in King Richard.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• CODA (Sian Heder)
• Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe)
• Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve)
• The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
• The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

Who Will Win: Drive My Car

They will want to give this critics favorite something. 

Who Should Win: CODA

It’s the best story. 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
• Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay and David Sirota)
• Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
• King Richard (Zach Baylin)
• The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier)

Who Will Win: Licorice PIzza

They will give into the buzz. 

Who Should Win: Don’t Look Up

I absolutely loved the writing in this. 

Animated Feature Film

• Encanto
• Flee
• Luca
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines
• Raya and the Last Dragon

Who Will Win: Encanto

Who Should Win: Encanto

Thanks for agreeing with me, Academy.

Costume Design

• Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
• Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
• Dune (Jacqueline West)
• Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
• West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

Who Will Win: Dune

They want to show they like SciFi even thought they won’t give best picture to one. 

Who Should Win: West Side Story

Fabulous Costumes.

Music (Original Score)

• Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
• Dune (Hans Zimmer)
• Encanto (Germaine Franco)
• Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
• The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

Who Will Win: Dune

Who Should Win:  Encanto

Sound

• Belfast
• Dune
• No Time to Die
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

Who Will Win: No Time To Die

They reliably pick an odd winner. 

Who Should Win: Dune

Cinematography

• Dune (Greig Fraser)
• Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten)
• The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
• The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
• West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

Who Will Win: West Side Story

This will go hand in hand with the WSS sweep.Off chance of Nightmare Alley

Who Should Win: West Side Story 

Documentary Feature

• Ascension
• Attica
• Flee
• Summer of Soul
• Writing With Fire

Who Will Win: Flee

Cause it is different. 

Who Should Win: Summer of Soul

 

Film Editing

• Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
• Dune (Joe Walker)
• King Richard (Pamela Martin)
• The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
• Tick, Tick… Boom! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

Who Will Win: Dune

Who Should Win: Don’t Look Up

International Feature Film

• Drive My Car (Japan)
• Flee (Denmark)
• The Hand of God (Italy)
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
• The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Who Will Win: Drive My Car

This film is sweeping the critics awards.

Who Should Win: The Worst Person In The World

This film has it all. Funny, touching, and original.

Makeup and Hairstyling

• The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• House of Gucci
• Coming 2 America
• Cruella
• Dune

Who Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Who Should Win: House of Gucci

Music (Original Song)

• Be Alive — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Darius Scott (King Richard)
• Dos Oruguitas — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
• Down to Joy — Van Morrison (Belfast)
• No Time to Die — Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
• Somehow You Do — Diane Warren (Four Good Days)

Who Will Win: No Time To Die

They Love Bond film songs. 

Who Should Win: Dos Oruguitas

Lin Manuel should win all somg awards. 

Production Design

• Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos and Patrice Vermette)
• Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau)
• The Power of the Dog (Grant Major and Amber Richards)
• The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh)
• West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo and Adam Stockhausen)

Who Will Win: Nightmare Alley

Only to try and not give West Side Story everything. 

Who Should Win: West Side Story

Visual Effects

• Dune
• Free Guy
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
• No Time to Die
• Spider-Man: No Way Home

Who Will Win: Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings

I think this will be a guilt play.

Who Should Win: Spider-Man No Way Home 

It’s visual effects were completely indistinguishable from real life.

About The Author

When he’s not reviewing films or interviewing people for the Black & A Half podcast, Silas Lindenstein can be found in the greater metro Seattle, WA working as a real estate agent helping people buy and sell homes, or performing stand up comedy to fellow nerds. He has a wife and three children and desperately wants to learn to make the perfect homemade pizza.